crashbandicootspyro| Non-agricultural data detonates the market! How can investors seize the opportunity?

专题：4月非农远逊预期crashbandicootspyro，2、3月非农被下修2crashbandicootspyro.2万人

　　周五（5月3日），美国劳工统计局报告表明，4月份美国只增加了17crashbandicootspyro.5万个工作岗位，比向上修正的31.5万个（原来是30.3万个）下降了近50%。失业率上升至3.9%，薪资年率下降至3.9%。

　　汇通财经APP讯——周五（5月3日），美国劳工统计局报告表明，4月份美国只增加了17.5万个工作岗位，比向上修正的31.5万个（原来是30.3万个）下降了近50%。失业率上升至3.9%，薪资年率下降至3.9%。

　　数据表明经济疲软是普遍存在的，尽管就业人数大大低于预期，但失业率的上升幅度也超出了预期，从3.8%升至3.9%，而此前的估计是持平的。

　　工资水平也有所回落，平均时薪环比增长0.2%，低于0.3%的预期增幅，也低于上月0.3%的增幅。按年率计算，收益增长3.9%，低于上月的4.1%，也低于4.0%的预期。

　　此前ADP称，美国公司4月份新增19.2万个就业岗位…与估计的24万相差甚远……事实上，如下图所示，这是自2021年12月以来的最大跌幅

　　非农后市场反应

　　数据公布后黄金短线冲高近20美元，随后跳水17美元。截至发稿报2306.30美元，日内上涨0.13%。美元指数暴跌约65点，后收复部分跌幅，截至发稿报104.7719，日内下跌0.6%。

　　（现货黄金10分钟走势图 来源：易汇通）

　　（美元指数10分钟走势图 来源：易汇通）

　　由于本次非农出乎市场预料，数据公布后市场反应非常激烈，以下是数据公布后1分钟内的市场反应。其中，黄金一分钟跳涨15美元至2320美元/盎司，白银一分钟跳涨0.5美元至26.855，美原油短线也跳涨0.28美元至79.62。欧元兑美元1分钟跳涨54点至1.0811，美元指数1分钟急挫逾50点至104.60下方。

　　弱于预期的数据可能会加剧美联储将很快降息的预期。交易员将美联储首次降息时间预期从11月提前至9月。目前预计2024年美联储将两次降息25个基点，非农前预期为一次。

　　美国国债收益率在数据公布之前就已经开始下跌，在数据公布后跌势进一步加深。目前10年期美债收益率为4.469%，2年期国债收益率为4.743%。

　　分析师这么看：

　　分析师Chris Anstey表示，本月的非农数据终于录得了疲软的增长，值得注意的是，在劳动参与率保持稳定的情况下，失业率在上升。非农报告中的工资增长也低于预期，这可能是最大的问题。还要注意的是，对前两个月的修正导致就业人数累计少了22，000人。这是一份全面疲软的报告。在服务业，工资在成本基础中所占的份额更大，理论上收入的放缓应该有助于缓解服务业的价格压力。自2023年年中以来，美联储偏爱的“超级核心”服务业通胀指标（剔除住房因素）一直呈上升趋势，这显然不是美联储想看到的。

　　大宗商品分析师Andrea Lisi评4月非农：正如我在鲍威尔主席周三的新闻发布会后所担心的那样，他可能已经知道今天的就业报告将会更加疲软。非农就业人数为17.5万人，而市场普遍预测为24.3万人，平均时薪降至4%以下。

　　本轮经济周期正显示出与其他许多周期类似的迹象，可能即将出现硬着陆，而不是软着陆。目前美国经济的支柱——劳动力市场正处于危险之中。普通美国人的财务状况远谈不上稳健，这种情况应该引起严重关注。

　　信用卡余额已达到前所未有的水平，储蓄率已跌至创纪录的低点。在这种情况下，许多中低收入的美国人尤其容易受到影响。如果失业率大幅上升，失业人数增加，就没有财政缓冲以备不时之需。

　　由于消费几乎占GDP的70%，在去杠杆化过程完成之前，需求可能会保持非常疲软。当周期转变时，我认为通胀率的下降将与经济衰退的程度一致。

　　这些天我比较喜欢的指标是投资级和高收益债券的信用利差，两者都处于历史低点。一旦，甚至是在经济出现疲软之前，这些息差就会飙升，那就是我们不得不担心的时候。

　　Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，这是一组对市场非常友好的非农数据，至少在短期内是这样。我们正处在一个坏消息也可能是好消息的时刻。他们所描绘的经济降温正是债券投资者所希望看到的，股市的反应也表明市场立即领会了这一点。从长期来看，我们可以争论这是否标志着经济开始恶化，但这会破坏今天上午的市场狂欢。

　　Richard Bernstein Advisors副首席投资官Dan Suzuki：这是一份相当有利于市场的就业报告。这大致表明，就业增长正在温和放缓，但没有崩溃，这有助于降低工资压力。与此同时，制造业的就业和工作时间都很稳定，这表明经济的一部分继续得到坚实的支持。

　　在距离美国总统大选仅剩6个月的时候，劳动力市场似乎正在转向。可以肯定的是，总体就业数据仍然强劲，人们正在寻找工作，但如果非农就业数据是一个滞后指标，crashbandicootspyro你就不得不问11月份的数据会是什么样子。

　　分析师Joseph Richter表示，工资数据可能是这份非农报告中最值得关注的数据点。过去三个月，时薪平均增速仅为0.23%，而前三个月为0.4%。工资增长放缓可能是未来几个季度非住房服务通胀数据好转的动力。

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says the labor market has taken a big step towards a better balance. There is nothing wrong with increasing employment by 175000. The danger is that the transition from overheating to room temperature will not stop there, but will become too cold. The risk would be greater if the Fed were still interested in raising interest rates, but it patiently halted the rate hike, keeping the risk of excessive downside in the labour market low.

Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the payrolls data "underscored Powell's confidence that monetary policy is restrictive and that labour supply has been the main driver of strong non-farm payrolls growth in recent months." The slowdown in employment and wage growth means a "soft landing", she said. "assuming CPI also shows a slowdown, the August rate cut may return to the market narrative." For now, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 10 basis points at its August meeting, up from 7 basis points before the report. Therefore, it is clear that more data is needed to show the economic slowdown, especially the upcoming inflation data.

LPL Financial's Quincy Krosby said the employment report was lower than expected. However, from the market reaction, we can see that this is a welcome figure for the market. At present, the market very much wants the Fed to cut interest rates this year and does not want hot data. Today's report undoubtedly provides them with a calmer interpretation of the labor situation. Moreover, more importantly, the unemployment rate has risen slightly, indicating a cooling of the labour market. The reason this is important for the stock market is that the stock market is looking for any sign that inflation may start to fall as the labour market cools. Therefore, this is beneficial to the market.

'The market should not get carried away, 'said Ali Jaffery, an analyst at Imperial Commercial Bank of Canada. Fed policymakers want more than just a month of good data to feel more at ease about inflationary pressures in the job market. "overall, the labour market is still strong and they need to see more evidence that the economy is slowing or employment has unexpectedly fallen sharply before they worry about their employment tasks after such strong job growth." In the end, the Fed will sit tight until they have a clear understanding of inflation.

Jason Pride, head of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said that from the Fed's point of view, the overall weakness of the data is really important, and the 3.9% unemployment rate is not catastrophic. This suggests that the economy has not fallen sharply, but it certainly shows that the labour market is looser. The Fed is looking for reliable data to extricate them from the long-term process of austerity. It is important to note that labour market reports are notoriously volatile, and what we see this month may be different from what we will see next month. This gives the Fed some hope, but it does not set a trend for them.